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Thailand's first elections since last year's violent protests place it at the crossroads between national reconciliation and further destabilization, a scenario analysts believe could have serious implications beyond its borders.

Squaring off against incumbent Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva of the Democratic Party is Pheu Thai party leader Yingluck Shinawatra, whose party is leading by a narrow margin in pre-election polls. Yingluck is also the sister of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who faces a warrant for his arrest on terrorism charges related to last year's protests.

Thaksin now lives in exile. His lawyer said the charge "violates logic, law and any claim of hopes for reconciliation."

Tensions between the two political factions, which reflect deep divisions within Thai society, erupted last year, with protests against Abhisit's government leading to a military crackdown, in which more than 90 people were killed and hundreds injured.

After the riots, the Thai government pledged to work toward a process of national reconciliation to heal these class and political divisions.

But just who wins Sunday's vote is far less important geopolitically than whether or not the results are accepted, according to Ernest Bower, Southeast Asia program director for the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

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